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Name of author Rick Baker, P.Eng.

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I'm no Economist...

by Rick Baker
On May 2, 2013

 

I'm no Economist.

So, I have no delusion about being able to either understand the financial-facts and number-nuances or accurately forecast the future economy. I have, however, experienced instances where I felt 100% certain I could accurately predict the direction of [natural gas] commodity prices. Perhaps, I was lucky; perhaps, it was real intuition. Regardless, my big-picture financial thoughts are more-or-less limited to questions and untested answers.

I understand people keep digging up gold, diamonds, and other precious things...which, for an interesting range of reasons, people value. As precious things are found and sold and bought - wealth increases. I understand people keep pumping up oil and gas and digging up other fuel sources...which, for practical reasons, people value. As these practical things are found and sold and bought - wealth increases...albeit, the growth in wealth is temporary for the buyer who sooner or later consumes them.

Outside of that and other similar simplistic views about how economies work, my big-picture financial thoughts are more-or-less limited to questions and untested answers.

Here are a few of them:

Debt is increasing. So what!

Isn't that the normal direction we should expect overall debt to take? Shouldn't debt follow the same trend as wealth? About the overall trend for wealth...isn't that trend an 'upward-sloping' line with overall wealth increasing with time? To the extent human beings place value on Value and call it wealth...haven't they always and won't they always tend to create it? Put another way, to the extent human beings innovate [in the commercial sense]...won't that tend to create wealth? And, as people create new pieces of Value and wealth and then exchange that new Value with other people won't the exchange be accompanied, in some instances, by new debt? So, isn't it natural for debt to increase as wealth increases? Shouldn't we expect that?

And - Isn't the extent of debt limited by the extent of wealth?

Wait a second...I worked through that Enron experience...let me rephrase that.

Isn't real debt limited by real wealth?

I'm no Economist...but...it seems to me the answer is 'Yes'.

We cannot expect one without the other. 

Sure, greedy and tricky hucksters can and do balloon the presentation of wealth. [not to mention Enron, again]

And, other folks - for example, the suckers Barnum said are born every minute - can be overconfident about the amount of debt they can afford and they can and do become over-extended.

However...

The aggregate of debt cannot exceed the aggregate of wealth...can it?

In the event the extent of aggregate debt gets too high relative to the extent of aggregate wealth, doesn't that get cleared up quickly with 'market corrections'? 

Don't market corrections reduce [right-size] both wealth and debt?

Questioned another way...

If wealth is not real then isn't the related debt also not real?

Don't stock-market corrections walk hand in hand with bankruptcy write-offs?

Don't these things pave the path for post-traumatic economic growth?

And...

When we say "debt is too high" don't we also mean "wealth is too high"?

 

PS: related to this -

  • Do people, on average, take debt more seriously than wealth? 
  • Do people in debt feel more obligated to pay their debt than people possessing wealth feel obligated to state its value accurately?
  • Aren't interest rates simply a reflection of confidence in [future] wealth creation? 

Thought Tweet #728

by Rick Baker
On May 1, 2013

Thought Tweet #728 Show & Tell...Pick Show!

 

The Thinking Behind The Tweet

In our younger days, our grade-school teachers tried to teach us how to Show & Tell.

[Perhaps due to the latency effect] Many of us only picked up the last half of the lesson.

It is really tough to lead by example when you are long on Tell and short on Show.

 

Tags:

Beyond Business | Leaders' Thoughts | Thought Tweets

How do we develop Bad Habits?

by Rick Baker
On Apr 30, 2013

In reaction to our fears and pain, we seek comfort & relief in the form of Bad Habits.

We develop our Bad Habits 3 ways:  

  1. When we protect our ego by avoiding challenging situations and replacing them with not-challenging, comforting situations. 
  2. When we bolster our ego by being aggressive with other people. Aggression appears in a wide range of forms. It can be as blatant as physical assault and as subtle as a harsh glance. 
  3. When we justify our ego - when we support and encourage our egoic frailties - by complaining to others

Perhaps, #3 is the most destructive because it:

  • occupies the time and consumes the energy of at least 2 people, taking their attention and talents away from important work; 
  • tends to spread to other people...bad news tends to travel...misery enjoys company
  • has a pernicious ability to linger over time. I call this tendency to linger over time a 'Complaint Lifetime". 

Complaints have the ability to live longer than the people who express them.

Prejudices are an example of long-living complaints. They are passed through time, generation to generation. It takes conscious and concerted effort to reduce and remove prejudices.

 

Tags:

Emotions & Feelings @ Work | Habits: Good Habits, Bad Habits, & New Things

Thought Tweet #727

by Rick Baker
On Apr 30, 2013

Thought Tweet #727 You know you are a leader when you feel confident in the face of confrontation.

 

The Thinking Behind The Tweet

You know you are a leader when you have confidence in situations of conflict.

[Bearing in mind...even the best of leaders have bad days along with their good days. For example, read the biography of Lord Admiral Nelson.]

Tags:

Attitude: Creating Positive Attitude | Hero Worship | Leaders' Thoughts | Thought Tweets

Thought Tweet #726

by Rick Baker
On Apr 29, 2013

Thought Tweet #726 Like Beauty, Fairness is in the eye of the beholder.

 

The Thinking Behind The Tweet

Fairness - an admirable motive...but, one that has a really difficult time surviving both delivery and receipt.

Fairness - a thing that tends to be torn between biased perspectives.

The rest of the world will treat me unfairly...OK...I will live with that.

I will treat others unfairly...OK...I will live with that too.

Thought Tweet #725

by Rick Baker
On Apr 26, 2013

Thought Tweet #725 How do your inner insecurities handle themselves in tough situations?

 

The Thinking Behind The Tweet

Do they champion courage?

Do they cry out for help?

Do they fluctuate in-between?

Do you make the best of your tough situations?

Does your self-control grow?

Copyright © 2012. W.F.C (Rick) Baker. All Rights Reserved.