We have wonderful dreams and ambitions…there’s no end to our visions of better things in the future. And, behind these dreams and ambitions, our motives are admirable – all around helping people, solving tough problems and building fun, cool and valuable things.

As we identify opportunities and conceive solutions, we are prone to trick ourselves. According to psychologists, we are predisposed to a wide range of biases. These biases skew our thinking, causing us to be over-anxious, over-confident and hold many other troubled mindsets between these extremes. If you were to fully research all the 100’s of psychological biases then you would probably be so frazzled you’d have trouble thinking anything positive about the future, let alone envisioning bright future changes. 

So – we don’t want to dwell on these biases. 

We just want to mention one of the biases – the tendency to be over-confident about our ability to predict the future…i.e., the ‘overconfidence effect’.

Psychologists tell us we are prone to be over-confident when we forecast the future. This causes us to over-estimate the success we will experience when we create a new product or service. While psychologists illustrate the problems this natural bias can generate, there are other ways to think about it. 

For example -

Scientists tout evolution. To a large degree, the concept of evolution is accepted by non-scientists. Along that vein, scientists and non-scientists alike can ‘blame’ evolution for our tendency to be over-confident about our ability to predict the future. And, consistent with evolution concepts, we can conclude this tendency must exist to help us adapt and survive. 

If we were not naturally blessed with the tendency to have over-confident thoughts about the future then we would be less inclined to envision better futures, set goals around our visions and be persistent in action aimed at our visions.

The where would we be?

[We’d be hobbled with low-confidence and submerged in fatalistic, status-quo thoughts.]

A strong desire to achieve promotes self-confidence.

Positive self-image and high self-esteem promote self-confidence. 

Sense of purpose and goals promote self-confidence. 

A commitment to take action promotes self-confidence. 

Affirmations promote self-confidence. 

Strong personal values for fair play promote self-confidence. 

Positive thinking, especially about other people, promote self-confidence.

Willingness to serve others promotes self-confidence.   

Truthfulness promotes self-confidence.

A keen sense of justice promotes self-confidence. 

'Planning your work and working your plan' - that also promotes self-confidence. 

These are some of the important messages Napoleon Hill embedded in his Self-confidence Formula. Hill understood self-confidence is a fragile thing...easily disrupted...time-consuming to build...energy-consuming to hold fast. 

Self-confidence is a habit. It is a good habit. 

Good habits don't just happen. Good habits require planning. Good habits require ongoing work. 

It doesn't matter what you've done or what you know or even who you know.

What matters is what you're going to do next and, of more importance, whether or not people are positively influenced by what you do next.

Sure, from time to time, it's fun to reminisce about the glory days. On the other hand, the glory days are not here again until you make it so. And as you make it so you may not be able to do it the same way it happened the last time.

As Dylan taught us - the times they are a-changin'.  

You will need to adapt and accommodate to the current situations.

As Darwin taught us - "Survival goes not to the strongest or the most intelligent but to the one who is most adaptable to change."  

Yes, it is true, what you know is important to a degree.

Better stated, what you know contains potential value. Specialized knowledge is of particular value. The extent of the value of your knowledge is determined by your ability to identify opportunities and do constructive things to convert those opportunities into positive changes [desired by other people].

Your future success boils down to how you intend to put your strengths - that is, how you intend to put your talents, knowledge, and skills - to good use in the future.

Your future success depends on whether or not you can positively influence other people to help you achieve the goals you envision.

Your future success depends on what you're going to do next: positive change happens one action-step at a time.