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Name of author Rick Baker, P.Eng.

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You probably suffer from Knowledge Overconfidence

by Rick Baker
On Sep 14, 2010
According to experts most people suffer from Knowledge Overconfidence.
 
That is, most people think they are more knowledgeable than they really are.
 
As individuals we think we are smarter than we really are.
 
As members of groups we think we are smarter than we really are.
 
Put another way – in general, when it comes to knowledge most people have an inflated self-image.
 
One often-cited example of proof goes like this:
  • Experts [psychologists etc.] pick a random group of people
  • A problem is presented to the group of people and they are asked to come up with solutions
  • The people are split into groups and the groups brainstorm to come up with as many viable solutions as possible
  • The solutions from all the groups are compiled
  • All the people get to see all the solutions and they select the best solutions
  • Then the group of people are asked to assess how well it did creating viable solutions to the problem…for example, rating its solutions on a scale of 1-to-10
  • Typically, the group of people scores its solutions high, say 8-out-of-10
In a separate process people who are considered to be experts in the problem area are asked to create solutions to the same problem.
 
Then the experts’ solutions are compared against the solutions created by the random group.
 
And, it is confirmed the experts’ solutions are much better than the solutions created by the random group. The experts have a broader range of solutions and the experts have better quality solutions.
 
These sorts of experiments are interpreted as proof people have knowledge overconfidence.
 
I don’t believe everything I read. However, when things I read catch my attention as this knowledge overconfidence concept did I find myself thinking…
 
So, I have been thinking about knowledge overconfidence.
 
How might knowledge overconfidence show up in day-to-day life?
 
To the extent people suffer from knowledge overconfidence, they probably tend to:
  • Be intolerant toward other people’s ideas
  • Listen poorly
  • Stop seeking solutions too early
  • Bulldoze over other people
  • Have a win-lose attitude in competitive situations
  • Under-estimate the value of expert advice
Now, I don’t think I suffer from any of these things. On the other hand, isn’t that exactly what we would expect a person with knowledge overconfidence to believe?

Tags:

Attitude: Creating Positive Attitude | Put Your Best Brain Forward | Solutions & Opportunities

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Sales Tweet #42

by Rick Baker
On Sep 14, 2010
Sales Tweet #42 Ernest Seller asked a Client what it would take to close the sale. His Client said, "A new sales rep".
 
The Thinking Behind the Sales Tweet
Ernest is always asking questions like that. He thinks the Client ought to make his sales life a whole lot easier. Just tell me what you want and I will get it done. Just tell me how to close this sale and I will wrap it up quickly and get on to my next call. The problem is: Ernest's Clients, in general, do not react well to these sorts of questions.

Tags:

Thought Tweets | Ernest Seller

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